Russia and Ukraine on the brink of a new gas crisis?

Authorities in Kiev are increasingly dissatisfied with the current contract that they have with Gazprom, signed in 2009 by former premier Yulia Tymoshenko, right after the previous gas crisis between Russia and Ukraine.

Forced to buy Russian gas, which are dependent almost 100% at a price just 30% lower than the market, threatened to break the current Ukrainians contract if Russia will not accept them deliver gas at a price to fall below $ 200 per thousand cubic meters.

For this, the two sides should agree on changing the current formulas linked to spot price (for immediate delivery transactions, editor's note) of a barrel of oil. As long as gas prices increase in proportion to the oil strongly influenced by the Middle East, the Russians have no interest to renegotiate the current formula, especially since the prospect indicates that gas prices in international markets could continue to grow at least 50% by the end.

"The formula price at which Russia supplies gas is universally valid for all countries, and Ukraine is no exception (...) intend to follow strictly all previously signed agreements, both on the pricing delivery, and on the transit "said a few weeks ago Vladimir Putin after a meeting with Ukrainian counterpart Nikolai Azarov.

Currently, natural gas price for Ukraine is $ 295.60 per 1000/mc and is expected to grow to $ 350 per 1000/mc in the third quarter, $ 400 respectively over the last three months of 2011.

Depending on developments on the international market, the price of gas delivered to Ukraine could jump even $ 500 per thousand cubic meters, according to statements made recently by Alexei Miller, Gazprom's chief executive.

Even if these values are 30% below the prices at which Russia could deliver supplies or to others viitorgaz "clients" in Europe, following the agreement that gave it to Kiev and the Russian Black Sea Fleet stationing in Crimea until 2042 , Ukrainians note and ask prices force more than a hundred dollars less per thousand cubic meters from current levels.

"The current gas supply contract between Russia and Ukraine is disadvantageous for Kiev. Russian gas price for Ukraine would be under $ 200 a 1.000/mc. The price per thousand cubic meters is too high. It was raised to 450 dollars to 179.50 dollars. Today should be less than 200 dollars per thousand cubic meters, "said Victor Yanukovych for Le Monde.

The statement was made with just one day before the leader in Kiev to meet with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, with whom he discussed, among others, the issue price of gas supplied by Gazprom to Ukraine.

A position similar to the Ukrainian President and Prime Minister Nikolai Azarov was that, this time after meeting with Putin in early June, said that Ukraine will forever this disadvantageous contract and that "sooner or later "the Russians will still have to agree to negotiate a contact more" decent ".

The problem for domestic policy

The current leaders in Kiev have every incentive to complain of bad conditions of the contract with Gazprom to mask the political trial of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. It is being prosecuted for abuse of power just when natural gas supply contract signed with Russia in 2009.

Ukrainians try to terminate this contract since spring last year, once immediately following the change of political regime in Kiev.

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